Swing follows your party votes. Editing a seat pins your pick until you choose Use model.
Adjust swing
Party vote
%
Poll assumptionsMore parties +
Total100.0%
Ready to calculate
Parliament
120total seats
61majority
0overhang
Allocation details
Coalition
0 seats
Electorate calls
Electorates?
Swing follows your party votes. Editing a seat pins your pick until you choose Use model.
Adjust swing
vs 2023 holders
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Seat picks
How this works
Electorate winners take their seats first. List seats follow the official party order, skipping electorate winners.
“±1 pt” changes one party’s vote by one percentage point, scaling the others proportionally and holding your electorate picks fixed. Close seats have a swing-model margin or a latest electorate-poll lead below 7 points. Polls use candidate votes as published; undecided voters are not redistributed. “List fallback” means the candidate still enters Parliament if that seat flips to the other contender (the leading alternative in a close poll, otherwise the swing model), with all other picks unchanged. These are scenario checks, not win probabilities.
Kerrin Leoni’s electorate win is counted as independent. Any list seat follows her official Labour list status; acceptance is not modelled.
Manual: you pick each winner. Party-vote swing: the model updates seats as party votes change; your pinned picks stay fixed.
The model starts with estimated 2023 results on the new boundaries. It adds each party’s national vote change to its local share, multiplied by swing strength.
At 100% strength, a 3-point national gain adds 3 points locally. At 0%, there is no swing.
Only the top two parties from 2023 can win automatically. Other candidates’ combined share stays fixed before rescaling. Local polls and candidate effects require your own picks; margins are not win probabilities.
Calculation details
Scores are bounded to 0–100, then all shares are rescaled. A tie or absent historical contender retains the baseline winner. Port Waikato uses the 2023 party vote as its starting proxy.
Example: Hutt South. The starting shares are National 44.1%, Labour 41.6%. At full swing, Labour leads when National’s nationwide lead falls below about 8.66 points.
Parliament & coalitions
Parties qualify with 5% of the party vote or one electorate win. Sainte-Laguë allocates 120 seats proportionally; electorate winners fill those seats first, then list MPs.
Independent electorate winners reduce the proportional pool. A party keeps electorate seats above its entitlement as an overhang. If its list is too short, seats remain vacant.
A majority is more than half the filled seats. Coalition totals assume every selected MP supports it.
Kerrin Leoni
An electorate win is allocated to Labour under her ballot status, then counted as independent, following her stated intention. Labour gets no replacement seat. Formal recognition happens after the election; list-seat acceptance is not modelled.
Tied allocations
An exact final-seat tie is flagged. This calculator breaks it alphabetically; the official allocation uses a draw.
Polls & baselines
Scenario baselines use polls whose fieldwork ended within 90 days of the data snapshot. The menu includes 14-, 30- and 90-day averages, 90-day pollster averages, and each pollster’s latest result.
Averages weight each poll equally after balancing it to 100%; pollsters that publish more often contribute more to all-poll averages. Applying a poll sets unreported parties to zero, assigns the remainder to Other, and scales totals above 100% down proportionally. Other is excluded from seat allocation.
“Changing hands” compares your picks with the actual 2023 winners, using the main predecessor for redrawn seats. Swing calculations use separate boundary-adjusted estimates.
Your scenario
Saved automatically in this browser. Export and import to move a scenario between devices or site addresses.
CSV import
Use columns type,name,value, with rows such as party,NAT,30 or electorate,Epsom,ACT. CSV updates the current scenario; JSON restores a complete one.